The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Tuesday remained subject to heightened levels of uncertainty because responses to COVID-19 continue to evolve.
In its November Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA said that reduced economic activity related to the COVID-19 pandemic has caused changes in global energy demand and supply patterns in 2020 and will continue to affect these patterns in the future.
For the crude oil prices, EIA high global oil inventory levels and surplus crude oil production capacity will limit upward pressure on oil prices and that Brent prices will remain near 40 U.S. dollars per barrel through the end of 2020. EIA expected that as global oil demand rises, forecast inventory draws in 2021 will cause some upward oil price pressures. EIA forecasts Brent crude oil prices will average 47 dollars per barrel in 2021.
EIA estimated that an average of 95.3 million barrels per day (b/d) of petroleum and liquid fuels was consumed globally in October. EIA forecasts that global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels will average 92.9 million b/d for all of 2020, down by 8.6 million b/d from 2019, before increasing by 5.9 million b/d in 2021.
As for the United States, EIA reported that 10.6 million b/d of crude oil was produced in the country in August, the most recent month that historical data are available, down 0.4 million b/d from July. Production fell in August mainly because hurricanes disrupted production from the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. EIA estimated that production will rise to 11.2 million b/d in November. On an annual average basis, EIA forecast U.S. crude oil production to fall from 12.2 million b/d in 2019 to 11.4 million b/d in 2020 and 11.1 million b/d in 2021.
Editor: Galia
