The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecast on Thursday that the country will become a net energy exporter in 2020 thanks to its increasing output of crude oil and decreasing domestic consumption of petroleum products.
According to EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2019 (AEO2019), the U.S. position as a net energy exporter would remain from 2020 through 2050 as a result of large increases in crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas plant liquids (NGPLs) production coupled with slow growth in U.S. energy consumption.
With projections of U.S. energy markets through 2050 based on a reference case and six side cases that include different assumptions regarding prices, economic activity, and technology and resource estimates, AEO2019 predicted continued development of U.S. shale and tight oil and natural gas resources.
Moreover, U.S. natural gas and NGPLs would see the highest production growth of all fossil fuels, and NGPLs are expected to account for nearly one-third of cumulative U.S. liquids production through the 2050 projection period.
According to EIA, the reference case is not intended to be the most probable prediction of the future, but it instead forms a baseline for estimating the effects of new policy or technology changes in the future. The other six cases show the effect of changing other key model assumptions.
AEO2019 also showed that U.S. net exports of natural gas would continue to grow as liquefied natural gas (LNG) becomes an increasingly significant export. Relatively low, stable natural gas prices would make U.S. natural gas competitive in North American and global markets.
EIA's reference case highlighted the impact of sustained low natural gas prices and declining costs of renewables on the electricity generation fuel mix. The natural gas share is expected to maintain its lead and continue to grow, increasing from 34 percent in 2018 to 39 percent in 2050.
Meanwhile, the share of renewables, including hydroelectric generation, is expected to increase from 18 percent in 2018 to 31 percent in 2050, driven largely by growth in wind and solar generation.
According to the outlook, increasing energy efficiency across end-use sectors would keep U.S. energy consumption relatively flat, even as the U.S. economy continues to expand.
During the week ending Nov. 30, 2018, the United States exported more crude oil and petroleum products than it imported for the first time in weekly data going back to 1991. This single-week estimate was considered a part of a longer-term trend: the United States is on the way to become a net energy exporter.
Editor:Cherie
